Hardin, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

064
FXUS65 KBYZ 160050
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
650 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trending cooler with an increasing chance of precipitation
  (including mountain snow) Saturday night into Tuesday. Lots of
  uncertainty remains. Monitor the forecast.

- Frost/freeze likely for many locations this weekend into early
  next week. Protect sensitive plants.

- Warmer conditions return for the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Aviation discussion was updated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday...

Winds will decrease this evening and overnight becoming light
across the region. Another warm and dry day is expected Saturday
for much of the region with temperatures ranging from the low 60s
over the western foothills to the mid 70s F near the Dakotas
border. A cold front will move through Saturday night bringing
winds gusting into the 30s mph for many locations.

Upper level troughing will impact the region Sunday through
Tuesday bringing cooler conditions and precipitation chances.
This troughing will eject multiple low pressure systems over the
plains. The first low pressure system currently looks like it will
set up somewhere over Northeast Wyoming/Southeast Montana.
Ensemble systems are indicating this low track will create a dry
slot somewhere over southeast Montana leading to a lot of
uncertainty in the location of precipitation accumulations. Due to
this, the highest confidence in precipitation accumulations
Saturday night and Sunday is for locations west of Billings. A
second low pressure system will then impact the region Monday and
Tuesday bringing additional precipitation chances. The main source
of uncertainty with this is how far the trough digs south and
therefore how far south the low pressure system sets up. Some
(33%) ensemble systems indicate this low setting up over the
southern plains (North Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle) significantly
limiting precipitation potential for Montana. The remaining
ensemble members (66%) locate the low pressure over the Central
Plains (Kansas) bringing higher precipitation amounts to the
region. Overall, the NBM is showing locations from Billings to
Miles City and Northern Rosebud County having the lowest chances
(30-50%) for receiving greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation
with the highest chances being for the mountains and foothills
(80-100%).

Light to moderate mountain snowfall is expected Saturday night
through early Tuesday. Snow levels are expected to get as low as
4,000 ft Monday morning bringing snow to foothills locations. The
chance for greater than 6 inches of snow is 50-90% for all
mountain locations while the chance for greater than 12 inches
generally remains less than 30%. Torgerson

.AVIATION...

00z Discussion...Scattered to broken mid to high clouds exist
over south- central Montana this evening. With this, a few pockets
of virga and/or sprinkles have developed. With very dry air near
the surface, localized gusty and erratic winds (gusts mainly in
the 30s knots) are possible this evening, and have occurred.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon and evening, scattered showers, and potentially a few
weak thunderstorms, are forecast to develop and move north and
east through the area into Saturday night. With this, the chance
of seeing a weak thunderstorm is 10 to 20 percent, greatest over
the foothills west of KBIL and over far south-eastern Montana.
Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/071 041/053 035/046 032/061 038/068 043/073 047/073
    00/B    64/W    46/W    41/B    01/B    11/B    12/T
LVM 039/062 031/046 027/045 026/057 032/063 037/069 041/070
    06/T    98/T    66/T    21/B    12/T    12/T    22/T
HDN 041/074 039/056 033/048 030/061 035/069 040/073 044/074
    00/B    44/W    46/W    41/B    01/B    11/B    12/T
MLS 042/076 045/058 035/047 033/058 035/067 041/072 046/072
    00/B    21/N    46/W    52/W    01/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 041/077 045/059 034/043 031/055 034/065 041/070 045/072
    00/B    22/W    57/W    62/W    01/B    11/B    12/W
BHK 038/076 043/059 031/043 029/053 032/064 039/069 043/070
    00/B    65/W    27/W    74/W    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 036/073 037/052 029/041 026/054 030/063 035/068 039/072
    00/B    25/W    88/W    53/T    12/T    12/T    13/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings