Hardin, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

398
FXUS65 KBYZ 160341
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
941 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cool, wet, and breezy conditions will continue
  through Wednesday. Widespread precipitation totals of 0.5 to 1.0
  inch are expected by Wednesday evening.

- Seasonal temperatures return Thursday and Friday becoming above
  normal for the weekend. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
  and evening thunderstorms are possible each day.

- Early next week is trending cooler and unsettled with another storm
  system working into the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Pops have been updated for current trends. Model timing not
handling situation very well at this time...so used broad brush.
Expect to see things fill in with scattered light rain over
western and central zones again overnight as upper trough axis is
still upstream and moving toward our CWA...but heaviest rainfall
rates probably over as area with best dynamics and instability
moving across eastern zones.

Earlier this evening, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall produced
up to 0.65 of an inch of rainfall in under an hour in a narrow
section of the Elk Burn Scar. Rock and debris flow hit US-14
around 8 miles southwest of Dayton and US-14 is currently closed.
Public report of flooding along Little Tongue River in same area.
This heads downstream into Dayton and residents near the Little
Tongue River in the Dayton area should remain alert and expect
rising water outside of its banks later tonight. Flash Flood
Warning for this area in effect until 245 AM. BT

&&

Through Wednesday night...

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool and wet conditions will be over the area today
through Wednesday evening as a trof of Canadian origin slowly
moves southeast across the area. Current readings are in the 50s
across much of the forecast area with a few 60s along the
southern and eastern state line. The warmest location in the
forecast area, and the only 70 degree reading, is currently Cooke
City at 74 degrees.

For this afternoon expect stronger jet energy to work in from the
southwest and over-run the cold surface airmass. This extra
energy will increase precipitation intensity and coverage across
the area through tonight and into tomorrow. A few high based
thunderstorms are possible as this jet energy works into the area.
The strongest potential for thunderstorms will be along the
southern tier of the forecast area with a a slight risk posted by
SPC for a severe thunderstorm clipping Sheridan county. Large
hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will all be a
threat with any stronger storms today into this evening. Given we
have 3 recent burn scars in the southern tier of the forecast area
will have to keep an eye on any heavy rainfall falling over burn
scars for the potential of flash flooding, particularly over the
Elk and Remington/McGhee burn scars.

The heaviest widespread precipitation will fall tonight through
Wednesday morning, tapering off Wednesday afternoon from west to
east as the upper trof shifts east into the Dakotas. Still looking
at the potential for record cold high temperatures Wednesday
afternoon, with highs expected to be in the mid 60s. With clearing
Wednesday night and the recent moisture, as well as southeasterly
low level winds persisting into Thursday, expect there to be
fairly widespread fog development for Thursday morning. This fog
may prevent temperatures from dropping into the 40s for many areas
outside of the foothills. So despite this cold core system, we
may avoid any record lows in our area. For reference Livingston
and Sheridan have record lows of 37 and 38 degrees respectively on
Thursday, and Billings is 45.

Still not seeing enough snow in the latest forecast to cause any
significant travel issues for the Beartooth Pass tonight into
Wednesday morning. Snow levels still hover around 11kft and snow
accumulation calculations are under 2 inches even above that
elevation. That said snow can fall to temperatures around 37
degrees so there may be some flakes noticeable down to 9500 feet
or so, and anyone heading up the pass should be alert for slick
spots. Those with recreation plans in the high country should be
prepared for cold wet conditions for the next 48 hours or so.
Chambers



Thursday through Tuesday...

Zonal downslope oriented flow aloft will bring drier and warmer
temperatures to the area Thursday. Highs look to be near seasonal
levels in the lower to mid 80s. Yet another upper low from western
Canada drops southward toward Montana, but shunts eastward along
the US/CA border. There is enough energy with this system to push
a surface cold front through the area shifting winds to the north
Thursday night into Friday morning. This surface front should be
enough to wring out some low precipitation chances, and maybe a
few thunderstorms, Thursday night into early Friday. Residual
moisture from Tue/Wed rainfall along with continued north to east
near surface winds keeping plains moisture in the area will keep a
chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Friday. NBM still seems a bit low on the probabilities
(15-30%) given the aforementioned moisture and focus from the
front and upslope winds. Look for precipitation probabilities to
increase some for Friday if the forecast stays consistent with
these variables going forward. Current temperature forecast for
Friday has highs very similar if not a touch cooler than Thursday.

Weak ridging builds in for the weekend. The strength of the
ridging feature has been decreasing over the past few model runs,
so the temperatures have trended downward a bit. Still looking for
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday. Will keep
a chance for late day showers and thunderstorms in the forecast as
there are ripples in the upper flow and not seeing a strong
downslope wind push to move recent surface moisture out of the
area.

The early to middle of next week looks interesting. About 75% of
the long range ensemble members are looking to dig a tof over the
PacNW and stretch it into Montana through Wednesday, while the
rest have either continued zonal flow like the weekend or a
broader ridge over the area. The trofing scenario which is
currently favored could be a good precipitation producer as well
as keeping temperatures cooler, and on the front side Monday the
southwest flow could be a severe thunderstorm producing setup.
Still a long ways out but something to keep an eye on. Overall the
week ahead is an unusual pattern for the later half of July which
is usually fairly hot and dry. Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...


Widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to move from west to east through the area this afternoon
and evening, continuing into Wednesday. A few thunderstorms could
be strong to severe over the southern mountains and foothills,
including near KSHR this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to 50
kts and large hail are the main threats. Mountain obscurations can
be expected through the period. Patchy to areas of fog will
impact all sites tonight, contributing to reductions in flight
conditions. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions at all sites through
the period, periods of LIFR are possible with heavier storms and
fog. PM/STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/065 051/085 060/083 060/091 062/091 061/089 060/083
    75/R    01/U    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 045/065 045/088 049/087 051/091 052/089 051/087 051/083
    32/R    01/U    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
HDN 053/065 048/086 058/085 059/092 060/092 059/089 058/085
    76/R    10/U    31/U    21/U    11/U    11/U    21/U
MLS 052/064 049/083 057/085 060/090 063/091 062/089 060/085
    98/R    11/U    40/U    11/U    21/U    21/U    22/R
4BQ 053/060 051/081 059/084 061/087 063/090 063/088 061/086
    98/R    10/U    30/U    21/U    21/U    11/U    21/U
BHK 048/061 044/073 052/082 054/085 058/088 058/086 056/083
    98/R    10/B    41/U    12/T    32/T    21/U    22/T
SHR 049/063 045/085 054/085 054/089 055/091 056/088 054/087
    77/T    10/U    21/U    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings